{"id":35736,"date":"2026-05-09T07:25:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-09T07:25:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/?p=35736"},"modified":"2026-05-09T07:25:21","modified_gmt":"2026-05-09T07:25:21","slug":"limmigration-ne-paiera-pas-nos-retraites-lobservatoire-hexagone-demolit-un-argument-central-du-debat-public","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2026\/05\/09\/limmigration-ne-paiera-pas-nos-retraites-lobservatoire-hexagone-demolit-un-argument-central-du-debat-public\/","title":{"rendered":". L\u2019immigration ne paiera pas nos retraites : l\u2019observatoire Hexagone d\u00e9molit un argument central du d\u00e9bat public"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Articles : Mai 2026<\/a> – Avril 2026<\/a> – Mar. 2026<\/a> – Fev 2026<\/a> –
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#webtube <\/strong>: C\u2019est l\u2019un des arguments les plus r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement avanc\u00e9s par les d\u00e9fenseurs d\u2019une politique migratoire g\u00e9n\u00e9reuse : l\u2019immigration serait n\u00e9cessaire, voire indispensable, pour financer les retraites fran\u00e7aises et europ\u00e9ennes face au vieillissement de la population.\u00a0Une \u00e9tude publi\u00e9e le 7 mai 2026 par l\u2019observatoire Hexagone<\/a>, sign\u00e9e par Philippe Lemoine \u2014 directeur de la recherche et chercheur affili\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019universit\u00e9 de Georgetown \u2014, vient contredire frontalement cette intuition. Calculs \u00e0 l\u2019appui, l\u2019auteur d\u00e9montre que l\u2019effet de l\u2019immigration sur le ratio entre actifs et retrait\u00e9s est marginal, et que les volumes n\u00e9cessaires pour neutraliser le vieillissement de la population d\u00e9passent toute mesure politiquement envisageable.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un constat d\u00e9mographique sans appel<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019\u00e9tude commence par rappeler des chiffres connus mais frappants. En 2000, les plus de 65 ans repr\u00e9sentaient 15 % de la population des pays formant aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019Union europ\u00e9enne. Cette proportion atteint d\u00e9sormais 20 %, et continuera \u00e0 cro\u00eetre dans les d\u00e9cennies \u00e0 venir. La France suit la m\u00eame trajectoire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les cons\u00e9quences sur les comptes sociaux sont massives. Les plus de 60 ans repr\u00e9sentent 28 % de la population fran\u00e7aise mais concentrent au moins 55 % de la d\u00e9pense sociale. Ils b\u00e9n\u00e9ficient en premier lieu d\u2019un syst\u00e8me de retraite par r\u00e9partition, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire financ\u00e9 par les cotisations des actifs en exercice. Or, le rapport entre actifs et retrait\u00e9s se d\u00e9grade rapidement : en 1945, la France comptait 6,1 personnes d\u2019\u00e2ge actif (15-64 ans) pour une personne de plus de 65 ans. Le ratio est tomb\u00e9 \u00e0 3,1 aujourd\u2019hui, et la trajectoire conduit \u00e0 environ 2,5 en 2050 si les tendances d\u00e9mographiques actuelles se prolongent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce \u00ab ratio de soutien des personnes \u00e2g\u00e9es \u00bb, comme l\u2019appellent les d\u00e9mographes, est l\u2019indicateur central du pilotage \u00e9conomique de nos syst\u00e8mes de retraite. Et c\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment sur lui que portent les calculs de Philippe Lemoine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Premier sc\u00e9nario : combien d\u2019immigr\u00e9s faudrait-il pour stabiliser le ratio ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019argument souvent invoqu\u00e9 dans le d\u00e9bat public est qu\u2019un afflux migratoire continu permettrait d\u2019\u00e9largir le nombre de cotisants et de stabiliser le syst\u00e8me. Question simple : combien faudrait-il accueillir d\u2019immigr\u00e9s pour maintenir en 2050 le ratio de soutien actuel, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire 3 actifs pour un retrait\u00e9 ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La r\u00e9ponse est sid\u00e9rante. Selon les calculs de l\u2019observatoire Hexagone, il faudrait augmenter le solde migratoire annuel non pas de 30 %, ni m\u00eame de 50 %, mais de 250 %<\/strong>. Soit un solde 3,5 fois sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne des quinze derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es \u2014 laquelle s\u2019\u00e9tablit d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 un niveau historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9. En valeur absolue, cela repr\u00e9senterait environ un demi-million de personnes suppl\u00e9mentaires accueillies chaque ann\u00e9e, sur une p\u00e9riode ind\u00e9finie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9, selon plusieurs enqu\u00eates d\u2019opinion convergentes, pr\u00e8s de 70 % des Fran\u00e7ais estiment qu\u2019il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 trop d\u2019immigration en France, l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un triplement du solde migratoire pendant plusieurs d\u00e9cennies rel\u00e8ve, comme le souligne l\u2019\u00e9tude, de l\u2019irr\u00e9alisme politique le plus complet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deuxi\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario : et si l\u2019on stoppait toute immigration ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019auteur de l\u2019\u00e9tude prend la pr\u00e9caution de tester l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se inverse, pour mesurer la sensibilit\u00e9 r\u00e9elle du ratio de soutien \u00e0 l\u2019immigration. Imaginons que le solde migratoire tombe brutalement \u00e0 z\u00e9ro et y reste jusqu\u2019en 2050. Que se passerait-il ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le ratio de soutien passerait alors de 2,5 (sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 immigration constante) \u00e0 2,32. Un \u00e9cart de 7 % seulement. Autrement dit, le niveau d\u2019immigration que conna\u00eet aujourd\u2019hui la France n\u2019exerce qu\u2019une influence \u00ab tr\u00e8s limit\u00e9e \u00bb sur le ratio entre actifs et retrait\u00e9s, par rapport \u00e0 un sc\u00e9nario th\u00e9orique sans aucune immigration. La conclusion logique de cet exercice est claire : qu\u2019on augmente ou qu\u2019on diminue radicalement l\u2019immigration, l\u2019effet sur le syst\u00e8me de retraites reste secondaire face \u00e0 la dynamique d\u00e9mographique de fond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le constat se confirme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle europ\u00e9enne<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019observatoire Hexagone n\u2019a pas limit\u00e9 son analyse \u00e0 la France. Le m\u00eame exercice a \u00e9t\u00e9 reproduit pour diff\u00e9rents pays europ\u00e9ens, en utilisant les projections d\u00e9mographiques par la m\u00e9thode dite des composantes. Les r\u00e9sultats convergent, partout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En Italie, il faudrait que le solde migratoire annuel soit multipli\u00e9 par six pour stabiliser le ratio de soutien. En Espagne, par dix. Le seul cas atypique est celui du Luxembourg, dont le solde migratoire est d\u00e9j\u00e0 anormalement \u00e9lev\u00e9 du fait de la petite taille du pays. Partout ailleurs, l\u2019immigration ne suffit nulle part \u00e0 neutraliser le vieillissement, et son effet reste limit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme le formule de mani\u00e8re concise Philippe Lemoine, \u00ab compter sur l\u2019immigration pour neutraliser l\u2019effet du vieillissement revient \u00e0 faire exploser le solde migratoire dans des proportions in\u00e9dites, quel que soit le pays \u00bb. Et il ne s\u2019agirait pas d\u2019un afflux ponctuel, mais d\u2019un rythme annuel \u00e0 maintenir pendant des d\u00e9cennies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une illusion politiquement co\u00fbteuse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019enseignement central de l\u2019\u00e9tude d\u00e9passe la seule question technique. Il porte sur le diagnostic m\u00eame que la classe politique fran\u00e7aise et europ\u00e9enne pose sur ses propres syst\u00e8mes sociaux. En se persuadant que l\u2019immigration peut, \u00e0 elle seule, r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me d\u00e9mographique, les responsables politiques se dispensent d\u2019engager les r\u00e9formes structurelles que la situation impose : r\u00e9forme du syst\u00e8me de retraites, ajustement de l\u2019\u00e2ge de d\u00e9part ou de la dur\u00e9e de cotisation, reconfiguration des prestations, politique nataliste, gains de productivit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019auteur le formule sans d\u00e9tour : \u00ab L\u2019id\u00e9e que l\u2019immigration paiera nos retraites est donc non seulement fausse, mais elle est aussi nuisible \u00e0 la r\u00e9forme et \u00e0 la planification de nos politiques sociales. Notre syst\u00e8me de retraite, d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibr\u00e9 aujourd\u2019hui, devra \u00eatre imp\u00e9rativement r\u00e9form\u00e9. Cessons de nous bercer d\u2019illusions et acceptons de regarder enfin la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 en face. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une \u00e9tude qui tombe \u00e0 un moment politiquement charg\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

La publication de cette \u00e9tude intervient \u00e0 un an de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2027, alors que les questions migratoire et sociale figureront sans aucun doute parmi les sujets centraux de la campagne. Selon une enqu\u00eate Odoxa-Backbone Consulting de janvier 2026 pour Le Figaro<\/em><\/a>, 67 % des Fran\u00e7ais consid\u00e8rent qu\u2019il y a d\u00e9j\u00e0 aujourd\u2019hui \u00ab trop d\u2019immigr\u00e9s en France \u00bb. Dans ce contexte, l\u2019argument selon lequel il faudrait augmenter encore le solde migratoire pour pr\u00e9server les retraites appara\u00eet, \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re des calculs de l\u2019observatoire Hexagone, \u00e9conomiquement infond\u00e9 et politiquement intenable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019\u00e9tude a aussi le m\u00e9rite de remettre au centre du d\u00e9bat la question des choix structurels : si l\u2019immigration n\u2019est pas la variable d\u2019ajustement, alors les leviers se trouvent ailleurs. Niveau des pensions, dur\u00e9e de la vie active, productivit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, soutenabilit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire de la d\u00e9pense sociale : autant de sujets qui exigent des arbitrages politiques clairs, dont aucun gouvernement fran\u00e7ais r\u00e9cent ne s\u2019est v\u00e9ritablement saisi avec la profondeur requise. Le coup de semonce m\u00e9thodologique port\u00e9 par l\u2019observatoire Hexagone a au moins le m\u00e9rite de rappeler que les illusions confortables ont un prix \u2014 celui de l\u2019inaction face \u00e0 un vieillissement d\u00e9mographique qui, lui, ne s\u2019arr\u00eatera pas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

breizh-info.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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L\u2019immigration ne paiera pas nos retraites : l\u2019observatoire Hexagone d\u00e9molit un argument central du d\u00e9bat public - # WEBTUBE.fr","og_description":"Articles : Mai 2026 – Avril 2026 – Mar. 2026 – Fev 2026 –Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr #webtube : C\u2019est l\u2019un des arguments les plus r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement avanc\u00e9s par les d\u00e9fenseurs d\u2019une politique migratoire g\u00e9n\u00e9reuse : l\u2019immigration serait n\u00e9cessaire, voire indispensable, pour financer les retraites fran\u00e7aises et europ\u00e9ennes face au vieillissement de … Continuer la lecture de « . 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