{"id":35260,"date":"2026-04-05T05:41:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-05T05:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/?p=35260"},"modified":"2026-04-05T05:41:03","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T05:41:03","slug":"detroit-dormuz-leurope-ne-decide-pas-de-la-guerre-mais-elle-en-paie-la-facture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2026\/04\/05\/detroit-dormuz-leurope-ne-decide-pas-de-la-guerre-mais-elle-en-paie-la-facture\/","title":{"rendered":". D\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz : \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019Europe ne d\u00e9cide pas de la guerre, mais elle en paie la facture\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Articles : Avril 2026<\/a> – Mar. 2026<\/a> – Fev 2026<\/a> – Jan 2026<\/a> –
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#webtube :<\/strong> Alors que 20% du p\u00e9trole mondial transite par le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, Washington se d\u00e9sengage brutalement en renvoyant l\u2019Europe \u00e0 ses responsabilit\u00e9s. Alexandre Muns, professeur \u00e0 l\u2019EAE Business School et ancien conseiller de la Banque mondiale,\u00a0analyse pour The European Conservative<\/a>\u00a0les contradictions d\u2019une crise qui r\u00e9v\u00e8le l\u2019impuissance strat\u00e9gique du Vieux Continent.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, corridor maritime de \u00e0 peine 24 kilom\u00e8tres de large, cristallise toutes les contradictions de la  politique<\/a> am\u00e9ricaine au Moyen-Orient. Pendant des semaines, Washington a martel\u00e9 que la r\u00e9ouverture de ce passage strat\u00e9gique devait \u00eatre garantie militairement. Puis Donald Trump a l\u00e2ch\u00e9 une bombe : si l\u2019Europe s\u2019inqui\u00e8te, qu\u2019elle s\u2019occupe elle-m\u00eame de maintenir le passage ouvert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une guerre asym\u00e9trique qui change la donne<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Les \u00c9tats-Unis et Isra\u00ebl ont gravement endommag\u00e9 les capacit\u00e9s militaires de l\u2019Iran, mais T\u00e9h\u00e9ran conserve la capacit\u00e9 de perturber le trafic maritime et de faire grimper les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie avec des moyens bien moins co\u00fbteux : drones, mines, missiles c\u00f4tiers ou simples attaques de harc\u00e8lement \u00bb, explique Alexandre Muns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le r\u00e9sultat ? Une crise dans laquelle personne ne veut intervenir militairement, mais dont tout le monde subit les cons\u00e9quences. Le Brent a bondi de plus de 50% depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019op\u00e9ration militaire du 28 f\u00e9vrier, le West Texas Intermediate de plus de 40%. Les deux ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 100 dollars le baril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le pi\u00e8ge du d\u00e9troit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Normalement, environ 138 navires franchissent quotidiennement le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz. Aujourd\u2019hui, seuls huit y parviennent. \u00ab L\u2019Iran n\u2019a pas besoin d\u2019une grande marine pour perturber le trafic. Des mines, des vedettes rapides, de l\u2019artillerie c\u00f4ti\u00e8re, des missiles et des drones suffisent \u00bb, souligne Muns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La guerre asym\u00e9trique joue en faveur de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran : \u00ab Un drone iranien peut co\u00fbter entre 30 000 et 50 000 dollars. L\u2019abattre avec des syst\u00e8mes Aegis ou des batteries Patriot co\u00fbte des millions. C\u2019est l\u00e0 que Trump et son \u00e9quipe ont, je pense, mal calcul\u00e9. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump pris \u00e0 son propre pi\u00e8ge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain avait promis une op\u00e9ration limit\u00e9e, sans troupes au sol. \u00ab Le probl\u00e8me, c\u2019est que sans troupes on ne peut pas garantir pleinement la r\u00e9ouverture du d\u00e9troit. Et Trump sait que s\u2019il envoie des Marines occuper des \u00eeles ou s\u00e9curiser le passage, il perd le soutien d\u2019une partie importante de sa base \u00e9lectorale \u00bb, analyse l\u2019expert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les sondages montrent que les \u00e9lecteurs r\u00e9publicains ont soutenu l\u2019action contre l\u2019Iran, mais ne veulent pas de \u00ab boots on the ground \u00bb \u2013 pas d\u2019un nouvel Iraq ou Afghanistan. Trump s\u2019est enferm\u00e9 dans sa propre rh\u00e9torique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pas de choc p\u00e9trolier des ann\u00e9es 70<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pour autant, Alexandre Muns ne croit pas \u00e0 une crise comparable \u00e0 celle des ann\u00e9es 1970 : \u00ab Mon impression est que Trump cherche une sortie rapide. Il a d\u00e9j\u00e0 laiss\u00e9 entendre que les \u00c9tats-Unis pourraient se retirer de l\u2019op\u00e9ration m\u00eame si Ormuz n\u2019est pas compl\u00e8tement rouvert. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une fois les bombardements arr\u00eat\u00e9s, l\u2019Iran aura int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 normaliser la situation. \u00ab 90% du p\u00e9trole iranien va en Chine. L\u2019Iran n\u2019a pas non plus int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 garder Ormuz ferm\u00e9 pendant des mois. La Chine a besoin de ce p\u00e9trole, et T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a besoin de le vendre. C\u2019est pourquoi je crois que d\u2019ici deux ou trois semaines la situation pourrait commencer \u00e0 se normaliser. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un objectif strat\u00e9gique flou<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Au-del\u00e0 du p\u00e9trole, l\u2019objectif de cette guerre reste obscur. \u00ab Je pense que Trump croyait pouvoir r\u00e9p\u00e9ter en Iran quelque chose de similaire \u00e0 ce qu\u2019il a tent\u00e9 de faire au Venezuela : provoquer un changement politique rapide puis ouvrir le pays aux accords \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques et d\u2019investissement \u00bb, estime Muns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais l\u2019Iran n\u2019est pas le Venezuela. Avec 90 millions d\u2019habitants, un vaste territoire, les Gardiens de la R\u00e9volution et une structure de pouvoir bien plus solide, un changement de r\u00e9gime \u00e9tait impossible sans invasion terrestre. Et cela n\u2019a jamais vraiment \u00e9t\u00e9 sur la table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reste un b\u00e9n\u00e9fice collat\u00e9ral pour Washington : les pays du Golfe se sont consid\u00e9rablement rapproch\u00e9s contre l\u2019Iran. \u00ab L\u2019Arabie saoudite, les \u00c9mirats, Bahre\u00efn et le Kowe\u00eft \u00e9taient divis\u00e9s il n\u2019y a pas si longtemps. Maintenant ils coordonnent leurs actions et s\u2019\u00e9loignent de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran. Il est m\u00eame possible que l\u2019Arabie saoudite et le Qatar normalisent \u00e9ventuellement leurs relations avec Isra\u00ebl dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019Europe, acteur prudent mais impuissant<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Et l\u2019Europe dans tout \u00e7a ? \u00ab L\u2019Europe appara\u00eet comme un acteur prudent mais aussi comme un acteur non pertinent. Elle a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 que ce n\u2019\u00e9tait pas sa guerre, et elle a probablement eu raison. Mais cela ne change rien au fait qu\u2019elle d\u00e9pend de ce que Washington d\u00e9cide et de ce que l\u2019Iran fait. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019Agence internationale de l\u2019\u00e9nergie a annonc\u00e9 la lib\u00e9ration de 400 millions de barils de ses r\u00e9serves. Les \u00c9tats-Unis ajouteront 172 millions de barils sur le march\u00e9. Mais ni l\u2019Europe ni l\u2019Asie n\u2019enverront d\u2019actifs militaires pour escorter les p\u00e9troliers. Personne ne veut \u00eatre entra\u00een\u00e9 dans une guerre ouverte avec l\u2019Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La question de l\u2019autonomie strat\u00e9gique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pour Alexandre Muns, la conclusion est sans appel : \u00ab Les \u00c9tats-Unis attendent le soutien europ\u00e9en quand il faut supporter les co\u00fbts, mais l\u2019Europe n\u2019est plus dispos\u00e9e \u00e0 suivre automatiquement Washington dans des guerres qu\u2019elle consid\u00e8re comme \u00e9trang\u00e8res ou contre-productives. \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u2019o\u00f9 une question encore plus urgente que la fermeture d\u2019Ormuz elle-m\u00eame : \u00ab Si l\u2019Europe ne veut pas prendre part aux guerres am\u00e9ricaines mais ne peut pas non plus prot\u00e9ger ses propres routes \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, quelle autonomie r\u00e9elle poss\u00e8de-t-elle vraiment ? \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Une interrogation qui r\u00e9sonne douloureusement apr\u00e8s des d\u00e9cennies de discours sur l\u2019autonomie strat\u00e9gique europ\u00e9enne, toujours proclam\u00e9e, jamais r\u00e9alis\u00e9e. Une fois de plus, le Vieux Continent d\u00e9couvre qu\u2019il \u00ab ne d\u00e9cide pas de la guerre, mais paie toujours la facture \u00bb<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breizh-info.com<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Articles : Avril 2026 – Mar. 2026 – Fev 2026 – Jan 2026 –Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr #webtube : Alors que 20% du p\u00e9trole mondial transite par le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, Washington se d\u00e9sengage brutalement en renvoyant l\u2019Europe \u00e0 ses responsabilit\u00e9s. Alexandre Muns, professeur \u00e0 l\u2019EAE Business School et ancien conseiller de … Continuer la lecture de « . D\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz : \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019Europe ne d\u00e9cide pas de la guerre, mais elle en paie la facture\u00a0\u00bb »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n. D\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz : \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019Europe ne d\u00e9cide pas de la guerre, mais elle en paie la facture\u00a0\u00bb - # WEBTUBE.fr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2026\/04\/05\/detroit-dormuz-leurope-ne-decide-pas-de-la-guerre-mais-elle-en-paie-la-facture\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\". 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D\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz : \u00ab\u00a0L\u2019Europe ne d\u00e9cide pas de la guerre, mais elle en paie la facture\u00a0\u00bb - # WEBTUBE.fr","og_description":"Articles : Avril 2026 – Mar. 2026 – Fev 2026 – Jan 2026 –Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr #webtube : Alors que 20% du p\u00e9trole mondial transite par le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, Washington se d\u00e9sengage brutalement en renvoyant l\u2019Europe \u00e0 ses responsabilit\u00e9s. Alexandre Muns, professeur \u00e0 l\u2019EAE Business School et ancien conseiller de … Continuer la lecture de « . 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