{"id":31460,"date":"2026-01-17T11:34:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T11:34:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/?p=31460"},"modified":"2026-01-17T11:34:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T11:34:11","slug":"iran-ni-chah-ni-statu-quo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2026\/01\/17\/iran-ni-chah-ni-statu-quo\/","title":{"rendered":". Iran\u00a0: ni chah ni statu quo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Articles : Jan 2026<\/a> – Dec. 2025<\/a> – Nov. 2025<\/a> – Oct. 2025<\/a> –
Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887<\/a> Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews<\/a> Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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#webtube <\/strong>: Avec leurs gros sabots, les m\u00e9dias r\u00e9duisent souvent la crise iranienne \u00e0 une fable opposant un peuple h\u00e9ro\u00efque \u00e0 un r\u00e9gime obscurantiste. Or, malgr\u00e9 une r\u00e9pression av\u00e9r\u00e9e, la complexit\u00e9 de la situation iranienne r\u00e9siste aux sc\u00e9narios simplistes. \u00c0 moins de prendre ses souhaits pour des faits, il est difficile de pr\u00e9sager de l\u2019avenir de ce pays-empire. Bombardera, bombardera pas ? Quelle que soit la d\u00e9cision de Trump, l\u2019Iran est entr\u00e9 dans une zone grise, instable et dangereuse.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u2019est la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9rie \u00e0 la mode. Du sang, des larmes et un prince en exil pr\u00eat \u00e0 se battre jusqu\u2019au dernier manifestant tu\u00e9. \u00c0 longueur de plateaux t\u00e9l\u00e9vis\u00e9s, Les experts T\u00e9h\u00e9ran<\/em> d\u00e9roule un sc\u00e9nario des plus simplistes : une population opprim\u00e9e se soul\u00e8ve contre les mollahs pour conqu\u00e9rir la d\u00e9mocratie et la la\u00efcit\u00e9 aux d\u00e9pens du grand m\u00e9chant Guide Khamenei. \u00c0 droite notamment, beaucoup r\u00e9\u00e9crivent l\u2019histoire de mani\u00e8re manich\u00e9enne et manipulent les fantasmes au gr\u00e9 de leur agenda politique (au choix : r\u00e9tablir la monarchie, voir chuter un r\u00e9gime islamiste, fustiger La France insoumise, etc.). Faute de sources fiables, il est pourtant difficile de mesurer la r\u00e9elle popularit\u00e9 du fils du chah Reza Pahlavi \u2013 dont le nom appara\u00eet au cours de nombreuses manifestations. Sujet scabreux s\u2019il en est, on \u00e9value tout aussi malais\u00e9ment le nombre de victimes de la r\u00e9pression \u00e9tatique. Certaines sources parlent aujourd\u2019hui de douze mille morts tant les morgues d\u00e9bordent de cadavres\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La R\u00e9publique islamique dos au mur<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Parti du bazar de T\u00e9h\u00e9ran, le mouvement de contestation se voulait d\u2019abord \u00e9conomique : 50% des Iraniens vivent au-dessous du seuil de pauvret\u00e9 et doivent se d\u00e9mener pour survivre. La population a en effet perdu la moiti\u00e9 de son pouvoir d\u2019achat en un an. Les sanctions internationales et l\u2019incurie du pouvoir ont eu raison de la classe moyenne locale, l\u2019une des plus \u00e9duqu\u00e9es du Moyen-Orient. Certains comparent la crise iranienne aux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es de l\u2019URSS, g\u00e9opolitiquement affaiblie par le retrait d\u2019Afghanistan et \u00e9conomiquement exsangue. Le parall\u00e8le para\u00eet d\u2019autant plus pertinent que la R\u00e9publique islamique s\u2019est enlis\u00e9e dans la guerre de Syrie sans parvenir \u00e0 sauver Bachar Al-Assad, a vu ses alli\u00e9s du Hamas et du Hezbollah r\u00e9duits \u00e0 la portion congrue. Le gouvernement maintient \u00e0 bout de bras une \u00e9conomie sovi\u00e9tis\u00e9e. 60 % \u00e0 70 % du march\u00e9 int\u00e9rieur serait aux mains des Gardiens de la r\u00e9volution, qui d\u00e9tiennent une part croissante du pouvoir dans ce r\u00e9gime cl\u00e9rico-militaire. Pour autant, l\u2019histoire ne repasse jamais les plats \u2013 aucun Gorbatchev iranien n\u2019a jusqu\u2019ici \u00e9merg\u00e9 ; quid d\u2019un futur Eltsine ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gare \u00e0 ne pas abuser des amalgames. L\u2019expression r\u00e9gime des mollahs<\/em> ne rend d\u2019ailleurs pas justice \u00e0 la complexit\u00e9 de l\u2019appareil politique iranien. Avant m\u00eame l\u2019instauration de la R\u00e9publique islamique, les Gardiens de la r\u00e9volution (pasdarans<\/em>) sont n\u00e9s dans la clandestinit\u00e9 et se pr\u00e9parent \u00e0 y retourner. Du temps de la guerre contre l\u2019Irak (1980-1988), Khomeini pensait le r\u00e9gime expos\u00e9 au risque de coups d\u2019\u00c9tat et comptait sur cette garde pr\u00e9torienne  pour mener une \u00e9ventuelle gu\u00e9rilla.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00ab Arrogants \u00bb contre \u00ab d\u00e9sh\u00e9rit\u00e9s \u00bb<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Bien que le sujet soit tabou, il serait na\u00eff d\u2019ignorer l\u2019implantation locale du Mossad<\/a>, qu\u2019Isra\u00ebl reconna\u00eet sans difficult\u00e9. Sans ramener la vague d\u2019opposition \u00e0 une r\u00e9volte pilot\u00e9e de l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur, cet aveu rappelle \u00e0 quel point le pays est vuln\u00e9rable aux ing\u00e9rences ext\u00e9rieures. Dans leur propagande, les caciques de la R\u00e9publique islamique reprennent la distinction entre monde de l\u2019arrogance (\u00e9st\u00e9kbar)<\/em> et d\u00e9sh\u00e9rit\u00e9s (mostazafin)<\/em> que l\u2019ayatollah Khomeini avait emprunt\u00e9e au penseur Ali Shariati. Comme de juste, apr\u00e8s une apparence de dialogue, les manifestants ont \u00e9t\u00e9 assimil\u00e9s \u00e0 des \u00e9meutiers puis \u00e0 des terroristes \u00e0 la solde de l\u2019ennemi sioniste. Singuli\u00e8rement puissante dans des petites villes de province, l\u2019actuelle vague de manifestations n\u2019est pas in\u00e9dite dans son ampleur. En 2009, le trucage du second tour de l\u2019\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle en faveur du pr\u00e9sident sortant Mahmoud Ahmadinejad avait mis dans la rue des millions d\u2019Iraniens. Las, le \u00ab mouvement vert \u00bb avait pli\u00e9 face \u00e0 la r\u00e9pression, son champion Mir Hossein Moussavi \u00e9tant encore aujourd\u2019hui assign\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9sidence. Bis repetita en 2019 puis 2022, autour de revendications plus soci\u00e9tales. Les cort\u00e8ges scandant le slogan \u00ab Femme, vie, libert\u00e9 \u00bb apr\u00e8s l\u2019assassinat de la \u00ab mal-voil\u00e9e \u00bb Mahsa Amini n\u2019ont pas trouv\u00e9 de d\u00e9bouch\u00e9 politique. Mais les dirigeants ont d\u00fb l\u00e2cher du lest en all\u00e9geant l\u2019oppression des femmes, de moins en moins voil\u00e9es dans l\u2019espace public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quelle issue ?<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Au vu du contexte international, l\u2019impr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 de Donald Trump rend tout pronostic hasardeux. Bombardera, bombardera pas ? Depuis la capture de Nicolas Maduro \u00e0 Caracas, T\u00e9h\u00e9ran a compris le message : la relative mesure des frappes am\u00e9ricaines de juin dernier sur les sites nucl\u00e9aires est potentiellement r\u00e9volue. Mais quid de l\u2019apr\u00e8s ? Trump aspire-t-il \u00e0 renverser Khamenei, primus inter pares<\/em> de la R\u00e9publique islamique, ou le r\u00e9gime tout entier ? Le pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent v\u00e9n\u00e9zu\u00e9lien semble plaider pour la premi\u00e8re option mais, comme le r\u00e9p\u00e8tent les cha\u00eenes d\u2019information, toutes les options seraient sur la table du Bureau ovale, peut-\u00eatre m\u00eame la n\u00e9gociation. Aux yeux de Trump, la frappe militaire pr\u00e9c\u00e8de souvent le dialogue, conform\u00e9ment \u00e0 sa vision transactionnelle de la diplomatie. Pour y voir plus clair, le  Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft a r\u00e9uni hier des universitaires irano-am\u00e9ricains lors d\u2019un webinaire. Les d\u00e9bats roulaient autour de trois axes : les revendications du peuple iranien, la strat\u00e9gie am\u00e9ricaine et les possibles \u00e9volutions du r\u00e9gime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De l\u2019avis g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, la col\u00e8re ne s\u2019\u00e9teindra pas. Men\u00e9 par la classe moyenne paup\u00e9ris\u00e9e, le mouvement d\u2019opposition n\u2019entend pas n\u00e9cessairement d\u00e9boulonner le r\u00e9gime. Vali Nasr, professeur \u00e0 la Johns Hopkins, imagine une possible intervention des forces militaro-politiques iraniennes : \u00ab Les Gardiens de la r\u00e9volution ne forment pas un bloc monolithique. Ils sont loyaux \u00e0 l\u2019Iran \u2013 et non pas \u00e0 Khamenei. Si une opportunit\u00e9 se pr\u00e9sente, un ancien g\u00e9n\u00e9ral comme Ghalibaf (Ndlr : pr\u00e9sident du Parlement) pourrait prendre une d\u00e9cision pragmatique. Il existe un \u00c9tat profond iranien, avec ses bureaucrates et ses technocrates, qui pourrait gouverner apr\u00e8s l\u2019\u00e9viction de Khamenei. Un putsch n\u2019est pas exclu \u00bb. Lundi, tout le ban et l\u2019arri\u00e8re-ban de la R\u00e9publique islamique s\u2019est mobilis\u00e9 pour marcher contre la violence et les destructions caus\u00e9es par l\u2019insurrection. L\u2019ayatollah Hassan Khomeini, critique discret du r\u00e9gime et petit-fils de son fondateur, y a m\u00eame \u00e9t\u00e9 aper\u00e7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conspu\u00e9, le pouvoir iranien ne plie pas l\u2019\u00e9chine. Le directeur du site Amwaj.media<\/a> Mohammad Ali Shabani souligne par ailleurs l\u2019esprit de responsabilit\u00e9 qui anime la majorit\u00e9 des Iraniens : en juin dernier, les bombardements isra\u00e9liens auraient tu\u00e9 un millier de membres des forces de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, sans parler des physiciens nucl\u00e9aires assassin\u00e9s. Le souvenir de la \u00ab guerre des douze jours \u00bb inqui\u00e8te donc une grande partie du peuple soucieux de l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 qui r\u00e9sulterait de l\u2019effondrement du syst\u00e8me. Dans ce pays-empire fragment\u00e9 en une infinit\u00e9 de peuples (Kurdes, Az\u00e9ris, Baloutches, Arabes, Talech\u2026), un chaos g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9 ne ravirait personne.Ellie Geranmayeh, membre de l\u2019European Council on Foreign Relations, imagine qu\u2019en cas de bombardement am\u00e9ricain, Benyamin Netanyahou pourrait surench\u00e9rir. Or,alors que l\u2019administration Trump voudrait un Iran fort connect\u00e9 au Moyen-Orient et aux int\u00e9r\u00eats am\u00e9ricains, le gouvernement isra\u00e9lien n\u2019aspire qu\u2019\u00e0 d\u00e9manteler l\u2019Etat et la puissance qu\u2019est l\u2019Iran. Tel un pr\u00e9dateur accul\u00e9 dans sa grotte, l\u2019appareil iranien entre dans la zone de tous les dangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daoud Boughezala<\/a>, Revue El\u00e9ments<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Articles : Jan 2026 – Dec. 2025 – Nov. 2025 – Oct. 2025 –Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr #webtube : Avec leurs gros sabots, les m\u00e9dias r\u00e9duisent souvent la crise iranienne \u00e0 une fable opposant un peuple h\u00e9ro\u00efque \u00e0 un r\u00e9gime obscurantiste. Or, malgr\u00e9 une r\u00e9pression av\u00e9r\u00e9e, la complexit\u00e9 de la situation … Continuer la lecture de « . Iran\u00a0: ni chah ni statu quo »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n. 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