{"id":30765,"date":"2025-12-24T16:23:24","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T16:23:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/?p=30765"},"modified":"2025-12-24T16:23:25","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T16:23:25","slug":"conte-de-noel-par-charles-gaves-quand-les-planetes-salignent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2025\/12\/24\/conte-de-noel-par-charles-gaves-quand-les-planetes-salignent\/","title":{"rendered":". Conte de No\u00ebl par Charles Gaves : \u00ab\u00a0Quand les plan\u00e8tes s\u2019alignent\u00a0\u00bb."},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Articles : Dec. 2025<\/a> – Nov. 2025<\/a> – Oct. 2025<\/a> – Sept 2025<\/a> –
Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887<\/a> Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews<\/a> Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

#webtube<\/strong> : En ce soir de r\u00e9veillon<\/em> de No\u00ebl<\/em>, on s’est permis d’int\u00e9grer cet article de Charles Gave au sein d’un conte de No\u00ebl. On esp\u00e8re qu’il<\/em> ne nous en voudra pas.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charles Gave :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comme le disait un humoriste anonyme, faire des pr\u00e9visions est extr\u00eamement dangereux, surtout quand il s\u2019agit du futur.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certes, je ne fais pas de pr\u00e9visions mais, si je vends quelque chose c\u2019est que je pense qu\u2019il va baisser, et si j\u2019ach\u00e8te autre chose c\u2019est parce que j\u2019esp\u00e8re que cela va monter\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce ne sont pas des pr\u00e9visions mais des \u00ab attentes \u00bb raisonnables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce qui est le plus aga\u00e7ant dans ce m\u00e9tier qui est le mien n\u2019est pas d\u2019avoir tort (ca arrive tout le temps) mais d\u2019avoir partiellement raison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Je m\u2019explique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prenons la Chine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Il y a quatre -cinq ans, je dis \u00e0 tous ceux qui veulent bien m\u2019\u00e9couter qu\u2019il faut vendre ses obligations fran\u00e7aises pour acheter des obligations chinoises. Cette recommandation est accueillie par une solide indiff\u00e9rence, voire par une certaine hostilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O\u00f9 en sommes-nous aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e9rifions : Quasiment 50 % d\u2019\u00e9carts entre les deux actifs. Je me congratule.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Continuant sur ma lanc\u00e9e, fin Janvier 2024 et \u00e0 nouveau en septembre, j\u2019annonce et c\u2019est une grande premi\u00e8re pour moi (\u00e0 81 Ans), qu\u2019il faut acheter le march\u00e9 des actions Chinois, en baisse continue depuis des ann\u00e9es, de nouveau dans l\u2019indiff\u00e9rence g\u00e9n\u00e9rale<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voici le r\u00e9sultat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Je suis en hausse de 79 % en moins de deux ans et je commence \u00e0 me prendre au s\u00e9rieux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enhardi par tant de comp\u00e9tence, j\u2019annonce que l\u2019euro va maintenant baisser vis-\u00e0-vis renminbi et passer de 7.75 y\/e \u00e0 7 y\/e ou en dessous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Il baisse gentiment \u00e0 7.50, et puis, sur une foucade de monsieur Trump remonte s\u00e8chement \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 8.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Non seulement j\u2019ai l\u2019air idiot mais en plus ceux qui ont achet\u00e9 des actions et des obligations chinoises gagnent beaucoup moins exprim\u00e9 en euro. Que j\u2019ai l\u2019air idiot n\u2019a aucune cons\u00e9quence grave. Que ceux qui ont suivi mes conseils perdent de l\u2019argent est extr\u00eamement emb\u00eatant tant tr\u00e8s peu de gens ont le moindre sens de l\u2019humour quand il s\u2019agit de leur argent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heureusement, la moyenne mobile \u00e0 6 mois vient d\u2019\u00eatre cass\u00e9e (vers les bas) et la grande hausse du renminbi que le monde entier attend depuis des ann\u00e9es a -peut-\u00eatre- commenc\u00e9e ..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si cela \u00e9tait le cas il faudrait s\u2019attendre \u00e0 des cons\u00e9quences importantes sur les march\u00e9s financiers dans le monde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prenez l\u2019or par exemple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dois-je investir en or ou en actions chinoises ?
Voyons<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Depuis 2024, je suis investi dans les deux, tant le march\u00e9 chinois est bon march\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019or (ratio aux alentours de 60).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais si le renminbi se met \u00e0 monter, il me va falloir vendre mon or puisque l\u2019or risque de baisser en monnaie chinoise, mais pas en euro\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais pour acheter quoi ? Peut \u00eatre des obligations longues au Japon ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e9rifions<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Si vous \u00eates madame Watanabe, aujourd\u2019hui, vous pouvez vendre 1\/9 de vos positions en or et racheter la totalit\u00e9 de la position en 30 ans Japonais que vous aviez vendu en 2020 pour acheter de l\u2019or. Voil\u00e0 qui est tentant\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce que j\u2019ai voulu montrer est que le travail du g\u00e9rant n\u2019est pas d\u2019avoir raison tout le temps, mais de s\u2019adapter en permanence \u00e0 ce qui se passe et, en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, de vendre quelque chose que tout le monde aime pour acheter autre chose que tout le monde d\u00e9teste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Et donc de ne jamais tomber amoureux de ses positions. L\u2019or ne sait pas que vous l\u2019aimez et les obligations japonaises ne savent pas que tout le monde les d\u00e9teste. Il faut rester froid comme un calamar et disciplin\u00e9 comme un teuton. Le reste suivra, mais vous n\u2019aurez jamais la paix. Et tout le monde dira que vous \u00eates fou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais, comme le disait Jules Renard (je crois) ; Il n\u2019y a pas de plaisir plus subtil que de se faire traiter d\u2019idiot par un cr\u00e9tin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charles Gave<\/a>, dans IDL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Articles : Dec. 2025 – Nov. 2025 – Oct. 2025 – Sept 2025 –Facebook : https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr #webtube : En ce soir de r\u00e9veillon de No\u00ebl, on s’est permis d’int\u00e9grer cet article de Charles Gave au sein d’un conte de No\u00ebl. On esp\u00e8re qu’il ne nous en voudra pas. Charles Gave … Continuer la lecture de « . Conte de No\u00ebl par Charles Gaves : \u00ab\u00a0Quand les plan\u00e8tes s\u2019alignent\u00a0\u00bb. »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\n. 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