{"id":26182,"date":"2024-07-08T11:32:18","date_gmt":"2024-07-08T11:32:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/13.36.34.64\/?p=26182"},"modified":"2024-07-08T11:32:18","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T11:32:18","slug":"le-nfp-un-victoire-de-davos-a-la-pyrhus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2024\/07\/08\/le-nfp-un-victoire-de-davos-a-la-pyrhus\/","title":{"rendered":". Le NFP, une victoire de Davos \u00e0 la Pyrhus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/rutubes.free.fr\/RutubeEmule-island.html\" frameborder=\"N\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Articles \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0: <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/2024\/07\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Juil. 2024<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/2024\/06\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Juin 2024<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/2024\/05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mai 2024<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/2024\/04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Avr. 2024<\/a> &#8211; Facebook\u00a0:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887\">https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887<\/a> Twitter : <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews<\/a> Music 24\/24 : <a href=\"http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/E6cPHMDLdRg\/maxresdefault.jpg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00b0\u00b0 WEBTUBE<\/strong> :<em> <a href=\"https:\/\/institutdeslibertes.org\/auteur\/charlesgave\/\">Charles Gave<\/a> Dimanche 7 Juillet, 21 h, commentaires \u00e0 chaud sur les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019\u00e9lection. C\u2019est dans des moments comme celui-ci qu\u2019il faut savoir garder son calme pour pouvoir tirer des conclusions raisonnables dans mes domaines de comp\u00e9tence, l\u2019\u00e9conomie et la finance.C\u2019est ce que je vais essayer de faire dans les lignes qui suivent.L\u2019incertitude l\u00e9gale sur la taxation des profits futurs et le co\u00fbt du travail sont de loin ce qui terrorise le plus les chefs d\u2019entreprise. Cette incertitude vient de faire un bond gigantesque. Je ne connais donc pas un seul chef d\u2019entreprise en France qui va accro\u00eetre ses investissements ou ses embauches dans les mois qui viennent, et j\u2019en connais beaucoup qui vont les r\u00e9duire substantiellement.En ce qui concerne les entreprises \u00e9trang\u00e8res qui auraient eu l\u2019id\u00e9e saugrenue d\u2019investir en France, je prends le pari \u00a0que tous ces investissements vont \u00eatre annul\u00e9s d\u00e8s lundi matin<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce qui veut dire que la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession vient de passer \u00e0 100 %, et avec cette r\u00e9cession nous allons avoir un creusement profond de notre d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire qui va passer \u00e0 10 % du PIB en tr\u00e8s peu de temps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or, tout le monde sait que notre pays souffre d\u2019un double d\u00e9ficit et du commerce ext\u00e9rieur et du budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tout le monde sait aussi que nous avons une dette colossale dont le financement est assur\u00e9 \u00e0 moiti\u00e9 par l\u2019\u00e9tranger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;En aucun cas, le r\u00e9sultat de ces \u00e9lections ne peut amener un investisseur \u00e9tranger&nbsp;\u00e0&nbsp;&nbsp;augmenter ses positions en revenu fixe dans notre pays. Et la tentation de les r\u00e9duire va \u00eatre gigantesque, et beaucoup ne vont pas r\u00e9sister \u00e0 cette tentation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce qui veut dire que la crise de la dette fran\u00e7aise qui me semblait probable est maintenant devenue certaine, et \u00e0 br\u00e8ve \u00e9ch\u00e9ance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ce qui nous am\u00e8ne \u00e0 l\u2019Europe et \u00e0 la BCE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notre pays est le seul en Europe \u00e0 avoir une situation financi\u00e8re aussi d\u00e9grad\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le gouvernement, quel qu\u2019il soit, va devoir demander \u00e0 la BCE de mon\u00e9tiser nos d\u00e9ficits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Et la, il n\u2019y aura plus d\u2019en m\u00eame temps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Ou la BCE, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire l\u2019Allemagne, accepte et l\u2019euro s\u2019effondre avec des taux longs qui monteront partout sous l\u2019effet inflationniste de cette dette<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ou la BCE refuse, et le Tr\u00e9sor Fran\u00e7ais doit trouver au minimum 200 milliards d\u2019euro en France, en utilisant les proc\u00e9dures pr\u00e9vues par le plan Sapin II , ce qui veut dire une ponction sur les \u00a0comptes de chaque fran\u00e7ais.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En ce qui concerne les actions du portefeuille IDL, elles vont se gameller, mais seront prot\u00e9g\u00e9es par les trait\u00e9s de double taxation sign\u00e9s avec tous les pays dans lesquels elles ont des filiales. Et comme ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, pour la plupart, perdent de l\u2019argent en France, se faire taxer sur leurs super profits ne va pas beaucoup les g\u00eaner. (voir aussi pour vous y aider<a href=\"https:\/\/universitedelepargne.fr\/)\">https:\/\/universitedelepargne.fr\/)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans tous les cas de figure, la France va \u00eatre mise en demeure de respecter les trait\u00e9s europ\u00e9ens, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire de monter les imp\u00f4ts et\/ou de baisser les d\u00e9penses de l\u2019Etat, ce qu\u2019elle ne pourra pas accepter, et donc nous allons vers une crise majeure , et peut \u00eatre finale de la construction europ\u00e9enne et de l\u2019euro..<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Et je vais conclure par trois remarques d\u2019ordre politique<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>En ce qui concerne le RN, le pire danger pour ce parti aurait \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u2019\u00eatre au pouvoir quand la crise obligataire se d\u00e9clenche, Voil\u00e0 un probl\u00e8me qu\u2019ils n\u2019auront pas.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les soi-disant r\u00e9publicains, men\u00e9s par Xavier Bertrand \u00a0et compagnie, ont une fois de plus r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 faire perdre la droite. Il faut les f\u00e9liciter. Entre Marine et Staline, ils ont fait une fois de plus le bon choix.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nous venons d\u2019assister une fois encore \u00e0 la victoire de Paris sur la France p\u00e9riph\u00e9rique, Je repr\u00e9senterais Paris, je craindrais les jacqueries<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Conclusion<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019incertitude en Europe vient de monter de fa\u00e7on extraordinaire<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Heureusement, les valeurs du portefeuille IDL n\u2019ont pas grand-chose \u00e0 voir ni avec l\u2019Europe ni avec la France<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il est trop tard pour vendre ces valeurs fran\u00e7aises (\u00e0 qui&nbsp;?).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Je les vendrai dans le rebond qui suivra le Krach qui s\u2019annonce<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Auteur:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/institutdeslibertes.org\/auteur\/charlesgave\/\">Charles Gave<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Economiste et financier, Charles Gave s\u2019est fait connaitre du grand public en publiant un essai pamphl\u00e9taire en 2001 \u201c Des Lions men\u00e9s par des \u00e2nes \u201c(\u00c9ditions Robert Laffont) o\u00f9 il d\u00e9non\u00e7ait l\u2019Euro et ses fonctionnements mon\u00e9taires. Son dernier ouvrage \u201cSire, surtout ne faites rien\u201d aux Editions Jean-Cyrille Godefroy (2016) rassemble les meilleurs chroniques de l&rsquo;IDL \u00e9crites ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Il est fondateur et pr\u00e9sident de Gavekal Research (www.gavekal.com).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/rutubes.free.fr\/RutubeEmule-island.html\" frameborder=\"N\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n\n<!-- AFS Analytics V7- Web Analytics 7.0 -->\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['AfsAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','\/\/code.afsanalytics.com\/js2\/analytics.js','aa');\naa('create', '00636949','auto');\naa('set', 'autotrack', 'on');\naa('set', 'autotrack.iframe', 'dataset');\naa('send', 'pageview');\n<\/script>\n<!-- End AFS Analytics \u2192\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Articles \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0: Juil. 2024 &#8211; Juin 2024 &#8211; Mai 2024 &#8211; Avr. 2024 &#8211; Facebook\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr \u00b0\u00b0 WEBTUBE : Charles Gave Dimanche 7 Juillet, 21 h, commentaires \u00e0 chaud sur les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019\u00e9lection. C\u2019est dans des moments comme celui-ci qu\u2019il faut savoir garder son calme pour pouvoir tirer &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2024\/07\/08\/le-nfp-un-victoire-de-davos-a-la-pyrhus\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> de &laquo;&nbsp;. Le NFP, une victoire de Davos \u00e0 la Pyrhus&nbsp;&raquo;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>. 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Le NFP, une victoire de Davos \u00e0 la Pyrhus - # WEBTUBE.fr","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2024\/07\/08\/le-nfp-un-victoire-de-davos-a-la-pyrhus\/","og_locale":"fr_FR","og_type":"article","og_title":". Le NFP, une victoire de Davos \u00e0 la Pyrhus - # WEBTUBE.fr","og_description":"Articles \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0: Juil. 2024 &#8211; Juin 2024 &#8211; Mai 2024 &#8211; Avr. 2024 &#8211; Facebook\u00a0:\u00a0https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=100069673161887 Twitter : https:\/\/twitter.com\/OrtfNews Music 24\/24 : http:\/\/DJMUSIC.fr \u00b0\u00b0 WEBTUBE : Charles Gave Dimanche 7 Juillet, 21 h, commentaires \u00e0 chaud sur les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019\u00e9lection. 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