{"id":12116,"date":"2021-08-06T05:54:44","date_gmt":"2021-08-06T03:54:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/?p=12116"},"modified":"2021-08-06T05:54:44","modified_gmt":"2021-08-06T03:54:44","slug":"112-000-morts-du-covid-en-france-mais-quelle-est-la-veritable-surmortalite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2021\/08\/06\/112-000-morts-du-covid-en-france-mais-quelle-est-la-veritable-surmortalite\/","title":{"rendered":"112 000 morts du Covid en France : mais quelle est la v\u00e9ritable surmortalit\u00e9 ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.weboomedia.fr\/RutubeStreaming1.htm\" frameborder=\"N\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Articles\u00a0: <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Aout 2021 &#8211;<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/07\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Juil.2021 &#8211;<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/06\/\">Juin 2021<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/05\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mai 2021<\/a> &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/04\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Avr. 2021<\/a> \u2013 <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/03\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mar.2021<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/media\/2020\/10\/cercueil.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces derniers jours, les m\u00e9dias nous ont annonc\u00e9 que l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid avait fait 111.997 morts depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie au printemps 2020, dont 85.453 \u00e0 l\u2019h\u00f4pital. Ces chiffres sont \u00e9normes et ne peuvent qu\u2019inciter \u00e0 respecter les consignes de prudence et \u00e0 la vaccination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, si l\u2019on va sur le site de l\u2019INSEE pour essayer d\u2019analyser ces chiffres, (r\u00e9partition par \u00e2ge et par&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/sujet\/sexe-2\/\">sexe<\/a>, etc.), on s\u2019aper\u00e7oit qu\u2019il y eut, en 2020, 668.817 d\u00e9c\u00e8s, soit 55.500 de plus qu\u2019en 2019, et que, pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2021, de janvier \u00e0 juin, nous sommes actuellement \u00e0 330.500 d\u00e9c\u00e8s, soit 22.750 de plus qu\u2019en 2019 o\u00f9 il n\u2019y eut \u00ab que \u00bb 307.750 de d\u00e9c\u00e8s pour la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Donc, de janvier 2020 \u00e0 juin 2021, il y eut, en&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/sujet\/france\/\">France<\/a>, 78.250 d\u00e9c\u00e8s suppl\u00e9mentaires toutes causes confondues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si on tient compte du fait qu\u2019il y a une augmentation \u00ab naturelle \u00bb du fait de notre d\u00e9mographie vieillissante (augmentation de la population et fin de vie des baby boomers surtout) d\u2019environ 3.500 \u00e0 5.000 d\u00e9c\u00e8s par an, on peut consid\u00e9rer qu\u2019il y eut environ 73.000 d\u00e9c\u00e8s de plus que ceux auxquels on pouvait s\u2019attendre ; d\u00e9c\u00e8s tr\u00e8s vraisemblablement dus, bien \u00e9videmment, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nous sommes quand m\u00eame encore loin des 112.000 annonc\u00e9s pour la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, il en manque 39.000. O\u00f9 sont-ils pass\u00e9s ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour l\u2019INED, l\u2019Institut national des \u00e9tudes d\u00e9mographiques, cela tient au recul d\u2019autres causes de d\u00e9c\u00e8s&nbsp;: pas ou peu de surmortalit\u00e9 li\u00e9e \u00e0 la grippe 2020\/21, moindre mortalit\u00e9 routi\u00e8re \u00e0 cause des confinements successifs, et les personnes fragiles souffrant de comorbidit\u00e9s dont elles seraient mortes ont vu leur fin h\u00e2t\u00e9e par le Covid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On peut faire confiance \u00e0 L\u2019INSEE qui collecte ses donn\u00e9es d\u2019apr\u00e8s les registres d\u2019\u00e9tat civil, mais l\u2019\u00e9cart entre ses chiffres et ceux annonc\u00e9s par l\u2019administration sanitaire reste tr\u00e8s important. Faut-il penser que le minist\u00e8re de la Sant\u00e9 sur\u00e9value les chiffres&nbsp;?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les \u00c9chos<\/em>&nbsp;du 17 mars 2021 s\u2019appuyant sur l\u2019\u00e9tude de l\u2019INED titrait&nbsp;<em>\u00ab&nbsp;Le Covid n\u2019aurait caus\u00e9 \u201cque\u201d 42.000 morts suppl\u00e9mentaires en France en 2020 \u00bb<\/em>, soit, en extrapolant, environ 65.000 de janvier 2020 \u00e0 juin 2021. Comment savoir o\u00f9 se situe le chiffre exact ? Comment avoir des statistiques fiables qui ne fassent pas appel \u00e0 des projections math\u00e9matiques qui s\u2019av\u00e8rent r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement fausses. Cela montre toute les difficult\u00e9s rencontr\u00e9es pour essayer d\u2019avoir une vision assez objective de la situation sanitaire, surtout que les malades d\u00e9c\u00e9d\u00e9s d\u2019une pathologie l\u00e9tale mais positifs au coronavirus ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9clar\u00e9s morts du Covid !<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cela pose, en fait, la question du taux r\u00e9el de surmortalit\u00e9 d\u00fb au Covid. Un autre article des&nbsp;<em>\u00c9chos<\/em>&nbsp;de juin dernier a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 les statistiques europ\u00e9ennes publi\u00e9es par Eurostat :&nbsp;<em>\u00ab Au total, sur l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2020, Eurostat calcule que l\u2019<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/sujet\/union-europeenne\/\">Union europ\u00e9enne<\/a>&nbsp;a d\u00e9plor\u00e9 545.000 morts suppl\u00e9mentaires que la moyenne des trois ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes, soit 12 % de plus. \u00bb<\/em>&nbsp;Avec, \u00e9videmment, des pointes de surmortalit\u00e9 mensuelle en mars-avril et en novembre 2020 (36,4 % et 31,3 % pour la France). Pour 2021, les statistiques sont, bien s\u00fbr, incompl\u00e8tes et ne concernent que le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, marqu\u00e9 par la 3<sup>e<\/sup>&nbsp;vague :&nbsp;<em>\u00ab La surmortalit\u00e9 dans l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019UE reste sup\u00e9rieure de 20,9 % aux mois de mars et avril, qui sont les derni\u00e8res donn\u00e9es disponibles. Mais derri\u00e8re cette moyenne, les situations sont devenues bien plus disparates selon les pays. La surmortalit\u00e9 \u00e9tait ainsi encore tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9e en&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/sujet\/europe\/\">Europe<\/a>&nbsp;centrale et orientale (76 % en Bulgarie, 65,6 % en&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/sujet\/pologne\/\">Pologne<\/a>, 61,5 % en R\u00e9publique tch\u00e8que, 53 % en Slovaquie, 47,7 % en Hongrie\u2026). Tandis qu\u2019elle retombait \u00e0 5,7 % en Allemagne et 4 % en Espagne, voire en terrain n\u00e9gatif dans les pays nordiques. La France se situait, elle, \u00e0 peine en dessous de la moyenne europ\u00e9enne, \u00e0 16,2 %. \u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un taux de 16,2 % qui ne concerne que les mois de mars et avril, en pleine 3<sup>e<\/sup>&nbsp;vague, et qui devrait \u00eatre bien inf\u00e9rieur sur la totalit\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainsi, si l\u2019on se place sur toute la p\u00e9riode janvier 2020-juin 2021, le taux de surmortalit\u00e9 d\u00fb au Covid en France serait de 73.000\/920.000 (nombre de d\u00e9c\u00e8s sur un an et demi en prenant l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2019 comme rep\u00e8re), soit 8 % de surmortalit\u00e9 environ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un souci de clart\u00e9 et d\u2019information, il ne semble pas inconvenant de se poser des questions sur la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 des chiffres publi\u00e9s en gros titres par les m\u00e9dias qui gagneraient \u00e0 \u00eatre mis en perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bvoltaire.fr\/auteur\/jacquesmichellacroix\/\">Dr. Jacques Michel Lacroix<\/a>, Boulevard Voltaire<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.weboomedia.fr\/RutubeStreaming1.htm\" frameborder=\"N\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<!-- ADDFREESTATS.COM AUTOCODE V4.0 -->\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n<!--\nvar AFS_Account=\"00636949\";\nvar AFS_Tracker=\"auto\";\nvar AFS_Server=\"www6\";\nvar AFS_Page=\"DetectName\";\nvar AFS_Url=\"DetectUrl\";\n\/\/ -->\n<\/script>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/www6.addfreestats.com\/cgi-bin\/afstrack.cgi?usr=00636949\">\n<\/script>\n<noscript>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.addfreestats.com\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www6.addfreestats.com\/cgi-bin\/connect.cgi?usr=00636949Pauto\" border=\"0\" alt=\"AddFreeStats.com Free Web Stats!\">Web Stats<\/a>\n<\/noscript>\n\n<!-- ENDADDFREESTATS.COM AUTOCODE V4.0  \u2192\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Articles\u00a0: Aout 2021 &#8211; Juil.2021 &#8211; Juin 2021 &#8211; Mai 2021 &#8211; Avr. 2021 \u2013 Mar.2021 Ces derniers jours, les m\u00e9dias nous ont annonc\u00e9 que l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid avait fait 111.997 morts depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie au printemps 2020, dont 85.453 \u00e0 l\u2019h\u00f4pital. Ces chiffres sont \u00e9normes et ne peuvent qu\u2019inciter \u00e0 respecter &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2021\/08\/06\/112-000-morts-du-covid-en-france-mais-quelle-est-la-veritable-surmortalite\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> de &laquo;&nbsp;112 000 morts du Covid en France : mais quelle est la v\u00e9ritable surmortalit\u00e9 ?&nbsp;&raquo;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-classe"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>112 000 morts du Covid en France : mais quelle est la v\u00e9ritable surmortalit\u00e9 ? - # WEBTUBE.fr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2021\/08\/06\/112-000-morts-du-covid-en-france-mais-quelle-est-la-veritable-surmortalite\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"112 000 morts du Covid en France : mais quelle est la v\u00e9ritable surmortalit\u00e9 ? - # WEBTUBE.fr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Articles\u00a0: Aout 2021 &#8211; Juil.2021 &#8211; Juin 2021 &#8211; Mai 2021 &#8211; Avr. 2021 \u2013 Mar.2021 Ces derniers jours, les m\u00e9dias nous ont annonc\u00e9 que l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid avait fait 111.997 morts depuis le d\u00e9but de la pand\u00e9mie au printemps 2020, dont 85.453 \u00e0 l\u2019h\u00f4pital. 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