{"id":10306,"date":"2021-03-28T07:46:49","date_gmt":"2021-03-28T05:46:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/?p=10306"},"modified":"2021-03-28T07:46:49","modified_gmt":"2021-03-28T05:46:49","slug":"rapport-toubiana-les-vrais-chiffres-du-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/28\/rapport-toubiana-les-vrais-chiffres-du-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"Rapport Toubiana : les vrais chiffres du Covid-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Articles \u00a0: <a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/03\/\">Mar. 2021<\/a> &#8211; \u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/02\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Fev. 2021<\/a>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2021\/01\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Jan. 2021<\/a>\u00a0\u2013\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/rutube.fr\/2020\/12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Dec. 2020<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.weboomedia.fr\/RutubeStreaming1.htm\" frameborder=\"N\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lemediaen442.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Laurent-Toubiana.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Media en 4-4-2<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Laurent\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Laurent_Toubiana#Mod%C3%A9lisation_des_%C3%A9pid%C3%A9mies_-_Sentinelles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Toubiana<\/a>, \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiste, et une \u00e9quipe du CNRS, de l\u2019Insee et de l\u2019AP-HP \u2014 \u00a0donc pas des guignolos m\u00e9diatiques \u2014 mettent les choses au\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/recherche.irsan.fr\/fr\/documentation\/index\/voir\/155-Analyse-25-mars-2021-:-L%E2%80%99%C3%A9pid%C3%A9mie-de-Covid\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">point<\/a>\u00a0sur l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid. Impossible d\u2019\u00e9valuer la l\u00e9talit\u00e9 en partant de chiffres de d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u2014 \u00ab avec \u00bb et \u00ab \u00e0 cause \u00bb du Covid \u2013 et de \u00ab cas \u00bb \u2014 au lieu de malades. Ils ont donc contourn\u00e9 le probl\u00e8me en partant de ce principe : pour \u00e9valuer la gravit\u00e9 d\u2019un fl\u00e9au,<strong>\u00a0la r\u00e9f\u00e9rence absolue est la mortalit\u00e9 toutes causes confondues.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>En 2020,<\/strong><strong>&nbsp;80 % de la population ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9pargn\u00e9s par le Covid<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie qui touch\u00e9 la France en 2020, n\u2019a pas caus\u00e9 de surmortalit\u00e9 pour les moins de 65 ans (soit 80 % de la population) et tr\u00e8s peu pour les plus de 65 ans (+ 3,6 %), pourtant de plus en plus nombreux (babyboomers). Soit 23 000 morts de plus que les 629 000 attendus normalement en 2020.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><strong><em>Ces chiffres doivent \u00eatre mis en perspective avec les 400 000 morts annonc\u00e9es par le pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9publique fran\u00e7aise en octobre 2020 pour justifier la mise en place du deuxi\u00e8me confinement.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Pas de surmortalit\u00e9 en 2020 par rapport \u00e0 2017, 2018 et 2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2019 avait montr\u00e9 un \u00ab&nbsp;d\u00e9faut&nbsp;&nbsp;\u00bb<em>&nbsp;[NDR : vocabulaire de statisticiens, faut faire avec]<\/em>&nbsp;de mortalit\u00e9 de 2,92 % directement li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019effet de moisson des \u00e9pisodes grippaux de 2015 et 2017.<br \/>La surmortalit\u00e9 observ\u00e9e en 2020 au passage de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid-19 ne serait qu\u2019un \u00ab&nbsp;<strong>rattrapage<\/strong>&nbsp;\u00bb&nbsp;<em>[NDR : on s\u2019excuse, mais c\u2019est le terme]&nbsp;<\/em>du d\u00e9faut de mortalit\u00e9 de 2019.<em>&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p><strong><em>Utiliser la mortalit\u00e9 de 2019 en tant qu\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ment de comparaison pour estimer l\u2019impact de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie en 2020, comme cela est pratiqu\u00e9 couramment, est donc une simplification doublement biais\u00e9e.<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-youtube wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Laurent Toubiana - &quot;Il y a une surmortalit\u00e9 relativement faible en 2020, de 3,66 %&quot;\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/J1F-oVVf8fI?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"200\" src=\"http:\/\/www.weboomedia.fr\/RutubeStreaming1.htm\" frameborder=\"N\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<!-- ADDFREESTATS.COM AUTOCODE V4.0 -->\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n<!--\nvar AFS_Account=\"00636949\";\nvar AFS_Tracker=\"auto\";\nvar AFS_Server=\"www6\";\nvar AFS_Page=\"DetectName\";\nvar AFS_Url=\"DetectUrl\";\n\/\/ -->\n<\/script>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"http:\/\/www6.addfreestats.com\/cgi-bin\/afstrack.cgi?usr=00636949\">\n<\/script>\n<noscript>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.addfreestats.com\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www6.addfreestats.com\/cgi-bin\/connect.cgi?usr=00636949Pauto\" border=\"0\" alt=\"AddFreeStats.com Free Web Stats!\">Web Stats<\/a>\n<\/noscript>\n\n<!-- ENDADDFREESTATS.COM AUTOCODE V4.0  \u2192\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Articles \u00a0: Mar. 2021 &#8211; \u00a0Fev. 2021\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Jan. 2021\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Dec. 2020\u00a0 Media en 4-4-2 Laurent\u00a0Toubiana, \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiste, et une \u00e9quipe du CNRS, de l\u2019Insee et de l\u2019AP-HP \u2014 \u00a0donc pas des guignolos m\u00e9diatiques \u2014 mettent les choses au\u00a0point\u00a0sur l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid. Impossible d\u2019\u00e9valuer la l\u00e9talit\u00e9 en partant de chiffres de d\u00e9c\u00e8s \u2014 \u00ab avec \u00bb et \u00ab \u00e0 &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/28\/rapport-toubiana-les-vrais-chiffres-du-covid-19\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continuer la lecture<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> de &laquo;&nbsp;Rapport Toubiana : les vrais chiffres du Covid-19&nbsp;&raquo;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-non-classe"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rapport Toubiana : les vrais chiffres du Covid-19 - # WEBTUBE.fr<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/webtube.fr\/index.php\/2021\/03\/28\/rapport-toubiana-les-vrais-chiffres-du-covid-19\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rapport Toubiana : les vrais chiffres du Covid-19 - # WEBTUBE.fr\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Articles \u00a0: Mar. 2021 &#8211; \u00a0Fev. 2021\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Jan. 2021\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Dec. 2020\u00a0 Media en 4-4-2 Laurent\u00a0Toubiana, \u00e9pid\u00e9miologiste, et une \u00e9quipe du CNRS, de l\u2019Insee et de l\u2019AP-HP \u2014 \u00a0donc pas des guignolos m\u00e9diatiques \u2014 mettent les choses au\u00a0point\u00a0sur l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de Covid. 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